HOW DO THE EXPANSION CONTENDERS COMPARE?
The strength of a city's market is one of the key metrics that will be used by MLB's expansion committee in deciding which cities they should award a team. While there are plenty of other considerations, having a big enough, rich enough, young enough and growing market is crucial to a city being awarded a new franchise.
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No city will have everything MLB is looking for and each expansion market has strengths and weaknesses. This page compares them.
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Most of the below data is calculated according to expansion cities' "metropolitan statistical area" (if in the US) or "census metropolitan area' (if in Canada). MSAs and CMAs represent the area surrounding the city to which the city has close economic ties and is the usual measure of the size of a franchise's market. This is particularly important context for Oakland's data. Unlike the other expansion contenders Oakland is not the largest city in its MSA - that title is held by San Francisco. This means that its data should be looked at in a slightly different light; the relative affluence of San Francisco makes Oakland's MSA data look more impressive than a city-specific approach would. That is not to diminish Oakland's candidacy, but to provide context for the data below.
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SIZE OF METRO AREA POPULATION
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Why is it important?
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Ticket sales are a major source of a franchise's revenue and having a large population living near the ballpark helps to sell those tickets. And, pretty obviously, the metro area where a franchise is based is where the majority of its fans will live - so the bigger that area, the easier it is to scale up a fanbase.
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How do expansion cities compare?
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Related content:
Expansion city deep dives
SIZE OF TV MARKET
Why is it important?
Regional TV contracts are still a lucrative part of MLB's business model, even if the collapse of Bally Sports has led to increasing experimentation with direct-to-consumer models. The larger a franchise's TV market, the more valuable their TV rights are, and the more revenue they will be able to generate from selling them. The way Canadian data is collected is different to the US, so only American expansion cities are shown on the below graph.
How do expansion cities compare?
WEALTH OF THE MARKET
Why is it important?
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Franchises make money by fans spending money supporting them - buying tickets, merchandise and more. The amount of money fans have to spend is determined by the amount of disposable income they have. MLB will want its new franchises to be based in areas where there are enough people with disposable income to support one.
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How do expansion cities compare?
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NUMBER OF POTENTIAL CORPORATE SPONSORS
Why is it important?
Corporate sponsorship is a key source of revenue for major league ballclubs. With ever-expanding ways that teams can make money from corporate partners, having a sufficient number of them in a franchise's market is important for their long-term viability.
How do expansion cities compare?
Related content:
Expansion city deep dives
AGE OF THE MARKET
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Why is it important?
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Franchises need sustainable fanbases that won't decrease over time. Older markets run the risk of supplying a fanbase that ages out. The future economic outlook of a market - including the income that future fans will be able to spend supporting their ballclub - looks more positive if its population is younger.
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How do expansion cities compare?
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HISTORY OF SUPPORT FOR BASEBALL
Why is it important?
Demographics only get you so far - in some markets, baseball is simply more popular than in others. While an imperfect measure, a market's history of support for minor league baseball helps give a sense of how much enthusiasm it has for the sport.
There are two numbers it is particularly important to take into account - the overall level of attendance, and the attendance as a percentage of each city's ballpark's capacity. They have to be taken together to give the full context for a city's support for baseball; looking at the attendance figures alone would disadvantage cities with smaller ballparks who struggle to fit in as many fans per night, while looking at the percentage attendance alone would advantage those ballclubs, who find it easier to fill their smaller stadiums.
How do expansion cities compare?
